The road to the finals for the Warriors is relatively easier for them compared to the Celtics. They eliminated the Dallas Mavericks in just five games. This lets them have more time to rest and prepare for the following opponents. I expect a MVP level performance from Stephen Curry. Everyone including him expects him to win this FMVP. If he keeps underperforming in the finals, he will make people think that he is the most overrated MVP in the history of the MVP.
The key of the Warriors offense is off ball screens. They have a lot of fancy ways to open up their shooter. We all know that their offense is initiated by Draymond Green. I am expecting that the Celtics are going to put Al Hortford on Green. Hortford’s defense is not like any of the Mavericks’ players. He is very experienced and disciplined. So, I don’t expect Green to pass the ball that comfortably like playing against the Mavericks. The Celtics used a lot of switches and dropped when they were defending the pick & roll against the Heat, because the Heat could not punish them with open threes. But, the Warriors shooters are different from the Heat. They are more than capable of making wide open three. So, this could keep the Celtics pick and roll defense more honest and simple for the Warriors to respond. The other key factor for the Warriors is Stephen Curry’s performance. When Robert Williams and Marcus Smart are defending Curry in the regular season, he only shoots 2/14 and 6 turnovers. The reason why I point out Williams is because he is probably the worst perimeter defender in the Celtics starting five. Curry will need to assure this mismatch opportunity. I expect Smart to be the primary defender on Curry throughout the series. In the past, Curry struggled against physical defense and Smart is known for being physical and harassing the ball handler aggressively. The Warriors would need to prepare a couple of plays to free up Curry against Smart to let him get into his rhythm. After talking about the star players for the Warriors, it is important for their role player to step up and make open threes. Against the Celtics, they are one of the best teams at closing out and contest perimeter shots in the NBA. The window to have a wide open catch and shoot three will be slimmer than all the other opponents they have faced throughout their playoff runs.
The defense of the Warriors is a key for them to have a deep playoff run this year. Against Luka Doncic and the Mavericks, they give him all kinds of different looks on defense to confuse him and lead to him making mistakes. Obviously, the Celtics offense is not like the Mavericks where a player holds the ball for 17 seconds for a play. But, this showed that the Warriors are capable of adjusting their defense to the most optimal scheme against the opponent’s defense. They also have a really good wing defender Andrew Wiggins to match up the Celtics super star Jayson Tatum. The Celtics offense is relatively simple, they won’t run a lot of sophisticated plays to confuse their opponents. They rely more on isolation by Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. But, the Warriors have two good wing defenders that can matchup against these two play makers, which is Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. The one thing that the Warriors defense needs to focus on is when the Celtics are running a 1–3 screen. This means that Marcus Smart will be the ball handler and Jayson Tatum will be the player to set the screen. The Celtics like to do this to let Tatum get the ball in the elbow area against a defender that is smaller than him. In this case, the player that will guard Tatum will most likely be Curry. This would be a matchup that the Warriors don’t like to see. After facing the Mavericks, I think the Warriors know how to hide Curry and not let opponents hunt on him in defense. If the Celtics are really stubborn and only want to let Tatum face Curry, this would most likely favor the Warriors. In the previous series when the Heat was playing the Celtics, the Celtics offense were stuck frequently when they tried to force a mismatch but could not get the matchup they wanted. The Warriors will definitely prepare for this. So if they can deny Curry guarding Tatum for over three times, their defense will be in good position. Even if the Celtics got the switch they wanted, the Warriors will need to push Tatum more outside to force him out of his sweet spot.
I think both sides’ starting lineup are evenly matched, so the series will most likely come down to how their bench players performed. The Celtics only have a 8 man rotation, so I think the Warriors will have an advantage on this part. If this series goes to game 7, the Warriors will have a huge advantage on stamina. They got more rest, since the Celtics played to game 7 in the conference final series, and they have greater depth on their bench to let their starter have longer time to rest. However, I don’t think this series will go down to game 7. It will likely be a sweep from either team, but the referee and the NBA will try to force a game 5. So, it is most likely going to be a 4–1 series. I don’t know which team is going to win, but I just have a feeling that this will be a short series.