The Eastern Conference is tied at 2–2 after four games. Even though the series is tied, there has only been one close game. Both teams will go on a run and take a lead and never look back.
For the Celtics, I don’t see them have a big problem defensively after the return of Robert Williams. Their game plan will be focused on slowing down two players Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler, but both players are injured and not 100%. What I am more concerned about is the Celtics offense. I wrote in the previous article that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown need to have better poise when it comes to reading the Heat’s defense. I think Brown did a pretty good job in this category. He makes the right decision on when to drive the ball, pass it to the outside shooter, or play isolation against his defender. There is sometimes that he will run himself into double teams and turn the ball over but, most of the time he is taking what the defense is giving him and not forcing too many tough shots. On the other hand, Tatum will need to be more patient and careful when he is making his read. On both of the Celtics losses he turned the ball over 6 times. He will get frustrated after he makes the first easy mistake and lose his poise which leads to more turnovers. In both games 1 and 3, the Heat take advantage of these turnovers and turn it into points. It will give the Heat a huge lead in a short period of time and barely give the Celtics a chance to comeback. What I would like to see Tatum do is be more decisive when facing double teams. He needs to swing the ball to his teammate faster before it is too late and force the Heat into a scramble drill then the Celtics roll player will have a chance to knock down those wide open threes.
On the Heat’s side, I think the main problem will be how they can hide Tyler Herro on defense and if their role player can step up to help take away pressure on Butler’s back. We all know that the Celtics offense relies on a lot of isolations. The Heat’s least favorite match up would be Herro defending the ball handler. So, when the Celtics force Herro into a pick and roll action the Heat will need to have an answer for that. If the Celtics still manage to get the switch they wanted, then they will have to be ready to help or double team. I think Bam Adebayo will be crucial in this role. The Celtics keep testing his help defense until they can stop it. We’ve seen multiple times in this series that the Celtics will penetrate and then swing the ball to the weak side shooter when the help defender is coming. It will be Adebayo’s response to help and try to interfere with the ball handler’s passing lane. The Heat’s defense will need to live with the Celtic’s role players shooting wide open threes since their player’s athleticism has no match against the Celtics ball handler. It will challenge their scramble drill and how fast they can close out on these wide open shooters. The other concern for the Heat is that other than Butler no one has really shown up offensively. In game 3, Adebayo did have his career night. But when you look at the entire game, it is only in the first half that he is effective. I would like to see more Kyle Lowery doing the passing, players knocking down wide open shots, and Adebayo scoring in the post to keep the Celtic’s defense honest and not condensing the paint and only focusing on Butler.
Overall I do think that the Celtics are a better team, but better teams don’t always win. In the playoffs experience would be a key factor as well and the Heat’s players are far more experienced than the Celtics players. I addressed both team’s weaknesses and what they didn’t do well in the previous game. An adjustment is expected for both teams in game 5. But so far in this series, I haven’t seen a game where both teams bring their A game. I would expect this game to come in game 6 which would be an elimination game for either team. I think the Celtics have more individual talent whereas the Heat relies on team chemistry. The odds of letting your supper stars win a crucial game is higher than using team chemistry. My prediction would be the Celtics winning the series in 6 games.