Despite missing the playoffs in three straight seasons under head coach Brian Flores, the Miami Dolphins ended the last two seasons with a winning record. After the 2021 NFL season, Brian Flores got fired and the Dolphins hired Mike McDaniel, the 49ers offensive coordinator as their head coach. Shifting from a defensive minded coach to an offensive minded head coach will definitely help Tua Tagovailoa to improve. The front office of the Dolphins also helped out by acquiring Chase Edmonds and Sony Michel to their running back group, most importantly Tyreek Hill to provide more speed to the offense.
The strength of Tagovailoa is very apparent. When he is playing instructure he is really effective. When I say about instructure I mean when he’s in the pocket and going through his progression smoothly. Tagovailoa is really good when he is anticipating how the defense is shifting through pre-snap. By getting information from pre-snap this could help Tagovailoa get the ball out of his hand when the back foot hits the pocket and before his receiver breaks the route. This will give the opponent’s DB very little time to react. All of his strength is to compensate for his weakness which is lack of arm strength. Despite he led the NFL in passing yards per attempt and second in completion when passes are 20+ yards, his arm strength is still a concern. One of the reasons he is really efficient when throwing the ball deep is because the defense is more willing to give up these deep passes rather than all the passes underneath. Opponent’s defense is daring him to throw deep because he has the second lowest deep ball attempt percentage at 7.5%. This is crucial because defense will just keep sitting underneath the coverage until Tagovailoa can punish them with deep balls. This problem severely affected Tagovailoa’s third down performance where he only recorded a below league average rating at 81.5. His lack of arm strength also affected plays that are not instructure. Sometimes when the Dolphins are high-lowing a zone defender, Tagovailoa could not hit the target that he is not trying to target pre-snap. Especially, when the lower route defender is not open he could not switch his target and set his foot to throw the ball to the higher route runner. His lack of arm strength will be something that he needs to improve on this offseason in order to fit into Mcdaniel’s west coast offense.
Mcdaniel’s offense fits Tagovailoa’s strength, but at the same time will require him to make deep throws. One of Mcdaniel’s favorite offense concepts is the sail concept. Sail concept is a zone beater especially against cover 3. A sail concept is when the offense is running a three level vertical stretch on one side of the defense. Usually the running back or tight end will run a flat route, a receiver that is on the weak side receiver will run an intermediate crossing route or the play side №2 receiver will run an out route, and the play side №1 receiver will run a vertical route. This is the staple of the west coast passing offense. With Tyreek Hill getting traded to the Dolphins and Jaylen Waddle expected to keep on improving they have the perfect personnel to run this play. With Hill’s speed he can take out the deep defender easily, this will leave the opponent’s CB sitting on an island with two receivers to defend. Waddle is a really good route runner with incredible speed, so even if opponents are in man coverage his speed could let his defender trailing if he adjusts his route properly. Tagovailoa showed that in his first two seasons he could go through these progression easily, but can his arm strength help him to complete this small windows throw will be a key factor on whether he could get used to Mcdaniel’s offense.
With the Dolphins adding more depth to their offense there is no excuse for them not to make the playoffs this year. We all know that the AFC East is packed with talent now. If the Dolphins will need to make it to the postseasons, Tagovailoa will need to play like a pro bowl caliber QB. I believe this will also be Tagovailoa’s last chance to prove his value in the NFL. The upcoming year’s draft will be full of QB talents that could replace Tagovailoa’s position. C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Cam Ward, and Will Levis are all very talented QBs that might get drafted in the first round next year. If Tagovailoa could not perform to the expectation this season with the personnel he had, he will most likely get replaced by one of these future young talents that are still in college. With the stage being set for Tagovailoa it is up to him to prove that he belongs playing in the NFL.